I have drawn a symbolic pin bar (PB) at those four spots. The PB shows where to wait for a bullish price action pattern, acting as signal to buy. As I said, the PB “icon” is just a symbol, any bullish price action may happen there (BUOB, DBLHC…) for the same result.
Here are the scenarios:
- Price re-enters the small blue D RM. In that case it will try and reach BRN 1000. Risky trade, the space to first target is just 120 ISK (buy at 880, sell partial stock at 1000).
- Price goes down to 800 BRN and puts a price action pattern. But we come right after the above double top. The “M shaped” RM inside the blue rectangle is called double top and is a specific subset of RM that often causes violent prices trops (the next days would prove it actually happened!). It’s very risky to buy right after a double top, they are one of the “falling knife” initiators. Therefore we want to see a confirmed inversion or at least a double bottom at 800 BRN before buying. Double bottoms are “W” shaped RMs, they are the complimentary, bullish scenario mirror to the double tops.
- Price drops down to the 730 weekly price level or even down to the 700 monthly price level (acting as support). This is a scenario similar to the above, with the added risk of having 800 BRN in the way up. In fact, if price breaks below 800 BRN (acting as support), the same BRN will act as resistance.
- The safest scenario: price breaks over 1000 BRN: there are no obstacles above plus the D RM “upper bound” reinforces the BRN. The more levels happen together the stronger the effects. This phenomenon is known as confluence.
That’s it for this analysis. Price was in the middle of nowhere at the time, so no “signal to trade” could be found. I repeat, this is normal for a swing trader, they are meant to re-assess the scenario every day until price indeed goes to a level and shows a trading setup.