Consulting
Audit report for Vadane Deninard business proposal
This is Vaerah Vahrokha’s analysis as of 2012-09-27 08:30 EvE Time.
NEISIN code: GFDENINIP011.
Official discussion: link to investment prospectus.
Public Audits Record (PAR) for this investment: backlink.
Tools used
jEveAssets
EvE Income Analyzer Inferno Edition
EvE Mentat
Microsoft® Excel™
Blender 3D => LuxRender
Paint.NET => Bolt Bait Pack, DPY Plugins, MadJik Pack, Vandermotten Effects
Forewords about the Audit
Vadane Deninard is an industry corporation CEO and high sec trader.
He wishes to make his corporation known to the Market Discussion community and eventually find investors in his business.
This audit is about checking Vadane Deninard’s skills and trading performance.
Generalities
Main character for this proposal is Vadane Deninard, an high sec mining, mining fleet boosting and trader character. Vadane Deninard’s owner, also plays an additional small trading alt and a beginner PvP alt. He trained several level IV and V skills for trading, contracting, hauling with industrials and mining fleet boosting (his assets include an Orca). He may also organize level 4 mission runs.
Vadane Deninard is an October 2011 character with 14.8M SP.
All of Vadane Deninard’s characters have very short posting histories. They don’t show evident ill-behaviors. Killboard records are minimal, only pertinent kill mail relevant to his business, shows an early days loss of an untanked mining barge to an high sec suicide gank.
Statement of ability to deliver: Vadane Deninard has got the required character skills both to trade, to mine and to boost mining fleets (his assets include Orca and exhumers). API records show regular past and present market orders running.
Statement of past activity: the journal API records report a regular trading activity as far as the API allows to check for.
Involvement in other business
As of September 27, Vadane Deninard has about 774.591.304 invested (public investment in Barakach).
Business Plan Analysis
Vadane Deninard disclosed his business strategy both to the Auditor and to the public. It involves both on organizing mining fleets and trading.
Vadane Deninard’s plan is to find Investors and to raise funds to be able and expand the current operation. In fact, as of now, the whole operation is more of a start up than a fully established business.
Vadane Deninard is already in the proposed market niche and industry, he does not need logistics.
Feasibility statement: the mining and mining operation boosting skills are here, the business plan looks viable, look at the market performance analysis for further details. As stated above and as admitted by Vadane Deninard himself, his operation is still in a start up phase, therefore “the numbers” are not huge.
Collateral and exit strategy
Vadane Deninard has not talked about staring an investment (IPO) yet, so these details are not known.
Net Asset Value and other balance considerations
The estimated net worth of all liabilities, solid & liquid assets is about 7.446B ISK.
Market transactions are mostly made by the Vadane Deninard.
Assets across all of the characters and corporations are estimated to be worth 3.182B.
Important notice: the reported values may be lower than the real amounts, because certain assets in certain conditions are not reported by the API.
The listing includes both Vadane Deninard’s corporation’s assets and his characters assets. In fact he told the Auditor he’d eventually use those personal assets to compensate the Investors for any losses.
Assets and balance
| 1">audit-record" style="text-align: left;" colspan="3">Balance | ||
|---|---|---|
| Wallet balance: | 1.725 | B |
| Market sell-orders: | 1.116 | B |
| Market escrow: | 0.648 | B |
| Contracts: | 0.000 | B |
| Investments / receivable: | 0.775 | B |
| Liabilities / payable: | (0) | B |
| Total: | 4.264 | B |
| 1">audit-record" style="text-align: left;" colspan="3">Assets | ||
|---|---|---|
| POS: | 0.000 | B |
| Fleet / ships (unfitted): | 2.139 | B |
| Modules: | 0.287 | B |
| Misc. solid assets; minerals, salvage, ice and trade goods etc.: | 0.406 | B |
| Blueprint copies and originals: | 0.030 | B |
Other | ||
| Accessories (includes PLEXes): | 0.000 | B |
| Charges: | 0.045 | B |
| Commodities: | 0.032 | B |
| Drones: | 0.056 | B |
| Ordered assets under construction: | 0.000 | B |
| Planetary items or resources: | 0.017 | B |
| Ship components: | 0.000 | B |
| General or classified items: | 0.170 | B |
| Total: | 3.182 | B |
Estimated grand total: 7.446 Billion ISK
The above evaluations were made by using The Forge prices as reference.
Markets performance analysis
Due to the changes in the EvE® API, none of the analysis softwares used in the past seem to work any longer. In order to improve this audit’s presentation, the Auditor ported and bug fixed one of them to the new standard. Thus EvE Income Analyzer Crucible Edition has born.
Statistics
Vadane Deninard has traded 44 different groups of items in the period covered by the EvE API (from July 27, 2012).
His turnover has been of 9.03B.
His average profit has been of 33.51% per trade.
His top 5 most profitable items had a profit from 114% up to 1157%.
No item in the top 20 earned less than 1.67% profit.
Wallet Transactions
The following sheets show some of the top and last transaction amounts, including the totals. As mentioned above the items have been grouped so each of the rows is a category of items. The item names have been hidden for privacy.
Bottom compounded transactions and totals:
Best selling items
The following graph shows which items were the best selling for the full API covered period. The item names have been blanked for privacy.
Trading efficiency
The following graph shows how much margin the Investee made by selling his stock. The “Efficiency” column shows the margin. In example, 1.58 means a 158% margin was achieved. The item names have been blanked for privacy.
The best item sales netted 1282% profit (fees not included, 1157% if included).
The average sales netted a 33.51% profit.
Selling speed
The following graph shows how quickly the stock moved. The item names have been blanked for privacy.
Items and markets
The following graph shows which markets had the highest turnover for which item. The item names have been blanked for privacy.
Time distribution
The following chart shows the time distribution (per hour and per day) of the sales.
Positives
Vadane Deninard has the character skills and the assets to confirm his claims.
Vadane Deninard discussed about some possible actions to take in case of wardec.
Vadane Deninard accepted an audit and replied to questions.
Vadane Deninard announced he’d eventually make his alts assets available for Investors reimbursement in case of issues with the business he proposes.
Negatives
No exit strategy has been discussed.
Little posting history makes it hard to understand the personality of Vadane Deninard.
The “public booth” thread could be seen as a quite well presented attempt to “rep grind”.
Vadane Deninard is a relatively new player some of his statements (low sec mining…) show that. Some Investors might be less comfortable investing in someone who could make mistakes.
Conclusions
Due to the risks bound with the trading profession, and due to the considerations listed in the “negatives” section, the Auditor classifies this investment as very high risk.
Please notice how “very high risk” does not mean “unsafe”. It’s two different concepts. Talking about high risk of bad performance, risk of real life complications etc. is one thing, the ever present chance of scam is another. The latter cannot be prevented by an audit, which only acts as first line deterrent.
The Investee seems competent (skills wise and player wise) enough to deliver on his statements and has past positive records. His business is in a growth phase, his API records show he may operated as he stated.
Basically, the Investee looks like having the ability to successfully honor an IPO. Notice how an audit may only evaluate the ability or potential of an Investee to succesfully honor a bond / IPO.
The Auditor suggests perspective Investors NOT to invest their full capital on this venture but to offer what they could eventually afford to lose.
Disclaimers
Due to stringent EvE API limitations, although the information provided to you on this document is obtained or compiled from sources believed to be reliable, Vahrokh Consulting cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness, or completeness of any information or data made available to you for any particular purpose.
This Auditor is actively and passionately against any breach of privacy, in particular regarding in game mail API access. Therefore no information will ever be gathered and no audit will ever be released that will contain any element found by eavesdropping someone else’s private communications.
Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by Vahrokh Consulting or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, assets or services.